The Economic Outlook for Q4 2024

The U.S. economy has proven to be more resilient than expected, despite months of predictions about an upcoming recession. Many commentators have expected a downturn since the yield curve inverted in the spring of 2022. Now, the yield curve is steepening, with 10-year Treasury yields finally rising above two-year yields. Recent data has shown the labor market is starting to soften, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.1% from 3.8% a year ago. Inflation is also cooling, with CPI inflation at 2.5% year-over-year through August. At its September meeting, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points, reducing the federal funds rate to a range between 4.75%-5%. In our latest outlook, we explore why the Fed chose to lower rates despite inflation still running above its long-run 2% target.

Click here to view the full Quarterly Outlook for Q4 2024.

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